Morgan Stanley Watch Report: Which Luxury Watches Actually Hold Value in 2026

Morgan Stanley just told its investors which watches actually hold value, and the results reorder almost everything collectors assume about the luxury watch market. The report tracks value retention across the major Swiss brands, comparing the current reading against the prior period to show which models are trending up and which are quietly bleeding out.

Value retention here means one thing: what a watch trades for on the secondary market relative to its retail price. A positive number means the watch sells above retail. A negative number means it sells below. It is the single most honest measure of demand in this industry, because it strips away marketing, waitlists, and boutique theater, and leaves only what a buyer will actually pay.

Three brands finished above water. Everyone else finished below it. Here is the full breakdown.

That is the whole list. Three brands out of the entire tracked field manage to sell for more than their sticker price on the open market. Every other name in the report, including houses with far deeper horological pedigrees, trades at a discount. Scarcity, brand equity, and disciplined production are doing the heavy lifting, and no amount of movement finishing changes that math.

Patek Philippe took the top spot, but the brand average of 15.4 percent hides an enormous internal split. The sport collections are carrying the entire brand, and the classic collections are dragging it backward.

The Patek Philippe Aquanaut is the single strongest performer in the entire report at 90 percent above retail. That is a watch trading at nearly double its list price on the secondary market. The Patek Philippe Nautilus follows close behind at 74 percent, and the Cubitus, still a young collection, has already established itself at 64 percent.

Then there is the other side of the ledger. Calatrava and Complications, the collections that arguably represent Patek Philippe at its most technically serious, sit 34 percent below retail. The gap between an Aquanaut at plus 90 and a Calatrava at minus 34 is 124 points inside one brand. Anyone shopping pre-owned Patek Philippe watches with resale in mind needs to understand that the brand name alone is not the asset. The collection is.

Rolex landed second at roughly 9.8 percent above retail, and the brand's internal spread is far tighter than Patek's. Almost every major Rolex collection posted a positive reading, which is the clearest signal in the report of how broad Rolex demand actually is.

The Land-Dweller leading Rolex at 36.4 percent is the headline. A collection this new topping the brand's own value retention table tells you the market absorbed it instantly rather than treating it as an experiment. Right behind it, the Rolex Oyster Perpetual at 34.5 percent is the quiet story of the report. The entry point into the catalog is outperforming watches that cost three times as much.

The Rolex Daytona holds at 33.8 percent and the Rolex GMT-Master II family sits at 25.4 percent, both of which confirm what dealers see on the floor every week. The Rolex Datejust at 7.2 percent looks modest by comparison, but consider the volume Rolex produces in that collection. Staying above retail at that scale is remarkable.

The one weak spot is the Rolex Sea-Dweller at 21 percent below retail. It is the only major Rolex collection in negative territory, and it reflects a buyer base that has migrated toward the Submariner for daily wear and toward the Daytona for status. If you have wanted one, this is the most favorable pricing environment the collection has offered in years. Browse the full range of pre-owned Rolex watches to see where current market pricing actually sits.

Audemars Piguet finished third at 3 percent above retail, the narrowest positive margin on the podium. And like Patek, the brand average masks a violent internal split.

The Audemars Piguet Royal Oak at 36 percent above retail is doing essentially all of the work, with the Royal Oak Offshore adding 23 percent. Code 11.59 sits 33 percent below retail, and that single number is why the brand average lands at 3 percent instead of somewhere near 30.

The lesson is identical to Patek's. Buying Audemars Piguet watches for value retention means buying the octagon. The market has been extraordinarily clear about which case shape it is willing to pay a premium for.

Four brands anchor the weak end of the report, and the discounts are steep enough to change how you should think about buying new.

IWC at 37.9 percent below retail means a buyer paying list price is roughly 38 percent underwater the moment the watch leaves the boutique. Vacheron Constantin sitting at 37.2 percent is the most striking entry in the entire report, because Vacheron is one of the three historic Geneva houses and produces watches at a level of finishing that Rolex does not attempt. The market simply does not price prestige and craft the way collectors talk about them.

Omega watches at 32.3 percent below retail and Cartier watches at 27.4 percent below retail tell the same story from a different angle. These are excellent watches with real design heritage. They are also produced in volumes that keep the secondary market well supplied, and supply is what sets the price.

Read that as an opportunity rather than a warning. A 30 percent discount to retail is exactly why the pre-owned market exists. You are buying the same watch, authenticated, for meaningfully less than the boutique charges.

The most overlooked part of the report is the comparison against the prior period. Every single tracked brand improved. Nothing got worse.

Tudor watches posted the largest single improvement in the report, closing 14.9 points of the gap to retail. Tudor still trades below list, but a brand moving from 40.6 percent under to 25.7 percent under in one cycle is a brand whose demand curve is bending upward fast.

Patek Philippe added 10.4 points, tripling its premium over retail. Rolex added 3.1 points on top of an already positive base. Even the weakest names in the report, IWC and Omega and Cartier, moved in the right direction. That is not the shape of a market in decline. That is a market that already took its correction and is now rebuilding from the bottom.

The data supports four practical conclusions.

Buy the collection, not the brand. Patek Philippe averages plus 15.4 percent, but an Aquanaut sits at plus 90 and a Calatrava sits at minus 34. Audemars Piguet averages plus 3 percent, but a Royal Oak sits at plus 36 and a Code 11.59 sits at minus 33. Brand averages are the least useful number in the entire report if you are buying one watch.

Integrated bracelet sport watches remain the asset class. Aquanaut, Nautilus, Cubitus, Royal Oak, Royal Oak Offshore, Daytona, GMT-Master. Every top performer fits the same profile. Dress watches and complications, no matter how technically impressive, are not where the money is going.

Negative retention is a buying signal, not a red flag. A Sea-Dweller at minus 21 percent, an Omega at minus 32.3 percent, or an IWC at minus 37.9 percent means the pre-owned buyer captures the discount the retail buyer paid for. If you are buying to wear rather than to flip, that is the best value in the market.

Do not confuse a watch with a portfolio. These figures describe how a market behaved over one measurement period. They are not a forecast, and no watch should be purchased as a substitute for an actual investment strategy. Buy something you want on your wrist, and let strong value retention be the tiebreaker rather than the reason.